As the midterm elections approach, investors often ask: Should I change my portfolio before Election Day? Elections can bring short-term market volatility, but the outcome doesn’t reliably tell investors which way the market will move. Your goals, time horizon, and financial plan are more useful guides than election predictions.
By Jeff Herman
Can midterm elections make the stock market more volatile?
They can. Ameriprise’s 2026 election guide says market volatility typically increases in the weeks leading up to Election Day and begins to stabilize afterward.
The Schwab Center for Financial Research looked at midterm elections since 1974 and found that the S&P 500 averaged a 1.7% return from August 1 through Election Day. That average was skewed by 1982, when the index rose more than 26% during the period as a recession ended and the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates.
These figures help put election-year uncertainty in context. They describe what happened across a limited set of historical periods; they don’t predict what the market will do this year.
Do election results predict whether stocks will rise or fall?
Not reliably. More volatility means prices may move around more; it doesn’t tell us which direction they’ll go. And knowing which party wins Congress doesn’t provide a dependable forecast for stock performance.
Markets respond to many forces at once, including company earnings, interest rates, and economic conditions. Election outcomes are one factor, but they aren’t a reliable reason on their own to make a portfolio decision.
Should you change your investments before the midterms?
Election uncertainty alone may not be a reason to abandon a long-term plan. Waiting until the political picture feels clear can mean waiting through more headlines, predictions, and market moves. That can make it harder to tell whether a decision reflects your financial goals or a reaction to the news.
Your plan should reflect what you need your money to do, when you may need it, and how much risk is appropriate for your situation. Retirement income, a future purchase, education costs, cash needs, and your time horizon are more personal guides than election-night projections.
If your goals or circumstances have changed, that may be a good reason to review your plan. But try not to let campaign headlines alone push you into a rushed change—or keep you from making a decision that still fits your goals.
Elections can stir strong emotions, and the 2026 midterms may be no exception. Before making a significant portfolio change, or putting off a decision because of uncertainty, talk with your financial advisor about how it fits your long-term plan.
If election headlines are making you reconsider your investments, let’s talk.